Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 23-11 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 67.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Evans
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
23
(34 meetings)
11
23
Evans
Hertl
Last 10: Evans 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
14
Evans
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
7
3
Evans
Hertl
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Evans
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
53.9% (8,303)
-0.2%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
59.2% (1,995)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
46.3% (806)
+0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Evans
Hertl
Home
53.3% (2,621)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Evans
Hertl
P1
54.0%
53.6%
P2
50.9%
54.2%
P3
52.0%
55.3%
OT
46.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 16:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 18:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:09 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |