Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.2% vs 50.8%). Look for Backstrom on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backstrom 51.1% vs Hertl 50.7% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 55.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 57.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Backstrom
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Backstrom
Hertl
Last 6: Backstrom 5-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
0
Backstrom
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backstrom
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
3
0
Backstrom
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backstrom
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,104)
51.5% (891)
-0.5%
Power Play
54.5% (178)
54.8% (135)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (89)
41.5% (130)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Backstrom has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backstrom is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (872).
Backstrom shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Backstrom
Hertl
Home
52.6% (705)
52.6% (544)
Away
49.7% (666)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Backstrom
Hertl
P1
51.1%
49.4%
P2
51.0%
51.7%
P3
51.4%
51.4%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
51.2%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 2 | 19:08 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |