Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Gagner wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gagner 46.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 17-8 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 84.6%
Defensive zone
Gagner 95.4%
Neutral zone
Gagner 92.6%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Gagner
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
17
(25 meetings)
8
17
Gagner
Hertl
Last 10: Gagner 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
9
Gagner
Hertl
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Gagner
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Gagner
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gagner
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (4,699)
53.9% (8,303)
-8.5%
Power Play
51.5% (928)
59.2% (1,995)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (226)
46.3% (806)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Gagner shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Gagner
Hertl
Home
48.7% (3,025)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
43.0% (2,843)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Gagner
Hertl
P1
44.6%
53.6%
P2
46.1%
54.2%
P3
47.3%
55.3%
OT
42.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
45.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 13:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 18:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 16:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 10:45 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 01:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 18:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |