Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Novak 42.6% (+13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 55.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 96.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 91.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
Lowry
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lowry
Novak
Last 5: Lowry 4-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
40.5% (405)
+15.2%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
45.5% (33)
+40.2%
On power play, Lowry has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Novak is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Lowry
Novak
Home
54.3% (429)
42.0% (212)
Away
53.5% (385)
39.8% (226)
By Period
Lowry
Novak
P1
53.1%
41.7%
P2
55.2%
39.5%
P3
54.4%
42.1%
OT
40.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:36 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |