Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +16.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Zegras 37.0% (+16.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 80.1%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 83.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 90.5%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Fantilli
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Fantilli
Zegras
Last 5: Fantilli 4-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
33.0% (264)
+16.4%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
32.1% (56)
+19.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
50.0% (2)
+0.0%
On power play, Fantilli has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Zegras
Home
50.7% (503)
35.3% (173)
Away
48.5% (501)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Fantilli
Zegras
P1
47.0%
33.0%
P2
52.5%
35.7%
P3
49.7%
29.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |