Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 38.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Bozak 56.2% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Bozak leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 88.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Nelson
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Nelson
Bozak
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
5
Nelson
Bozak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
3
7
Nelson
Bozak
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Nelson
Bozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
56.5% (1,119)
-13.5%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
58.4% (226)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
50.0% (20)
-5.7%
On even strength, Bozak has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Nelson is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Nelson shoots left. Bozak is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (910).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bozak
Home
41.9% (391)
60.1% (682)
Away
45.5% (400)
53.2% (684)
By Period
Nelson
Bozak
P1
47.1%
57.7%
P2
43.0%
53.7%
P3
40.9%
59.0%
OT
63.6%
55.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
43.7%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2017 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 3 | 05:41 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | OT | 00:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 1 | 19:37 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 1 | 13:27 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 1 | 03:40 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 3 | 07:39 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 1 | 05:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |