Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 48.7% vs Bozak 55.4% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 57.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 62.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
MacKinnon
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
MacKinnon
Bozak
Last 6: MacKinnon 1-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
MacKinnon
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
MacKinnon
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
MacKinnon
Bozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (439)
58.3% (271)
-9.8%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
60.6% (33)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
50.0% (78)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. MacKinnon is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (69).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bozak is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bozak
Home
52.5% (221)
60.7% (206)
Away
45.2% (272)
52.3% (176)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bozak
P1
50.5%
57.3%
P2
45.5%
57.8%
P3
48.5%
56.2%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
48.5%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 10:07 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 13:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 16:44 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 05:54 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 13, 2021 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |