Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Johnson 51.8% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 83.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 60.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 78.9%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Ryan
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Ryan
Johnson
Last 6: Ryan 5-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
1
Ryan
Johnson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (576)
51.2% (825)
+3.7%
Power Play
59.8% (112)
56.9% (160)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
51.1% (137)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Ryan is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Ryan shoots right. Johnson is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (337).
Home / Away
Ryan
Johnson
Home
57.7% (355)
56.9% (583)
Away
52.8% (352)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Ryan
Johnson
P1
57.9%
55.1%
P2
53.2%
53.0%
P3
54.8%
48.8%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2017 | 3 | 15:18 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 01:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |