Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Seguin 53.6% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 17-8 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Seguin 63.0%
Defensive zone
Seguin 59.7%
Neutral zone
Seguin 59.4%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Ryan
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
17
(25 meetings)
8
17
Ryan
Seguin
Last 10: Ryan 3-7 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
5
Ryan
Seguin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
4
8
Ryan
Seguin
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
4
Ryan
Seguin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.7% (8,071)
+2.9%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
55.9% (810)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
49.3% (762)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Ryan
Seguin
Home
56.2% (2,559)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Ryan
Seguin
P1
55.1%
52.8%
P2
54.7%
53.3%
P3
56.0%
54.7%
OT
58.3%
54.7%
Final 5 min
52.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:39 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 1 | 04:43 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 3 | 13:36 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 01:35 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 1 | 12:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 1 | 11:48 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 1 | 09:21 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 18:51 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |