Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Seguin 52.5% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
O'Reilly
Seguin
Last 9: O'Reilly 6-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
O'Reilly
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
53.2% (201)
+2.5%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
60.0% (25)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
44.4% (9)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
55.5% (616)
56.3% (126)
Away
55.3% (617)
50.5% (109)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
58.1%
44.3%
P2
54.9%
52.1%
P3
53.9%
62.5%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:05 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |