Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Jost 42.2% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 96.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 70.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 83.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Pavelski
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
Jost
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
0
Pavelski
Jost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
1
2
Pavelski
Jost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
40.8% (314)
+11.7%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
37.5% (8)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
39.4% (104)
+5.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Jost is 36.0% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Jost
Home
55.0% (391)
42.8% (264)
Away
49.7% (360)
36.4% (162)
By Period
Pavelski
Jost
P1
50.8%
37.4%
P2
55.0%
40.5%
P3
52.0%
43.3%
Final 5 min
56.2%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Jost
40.0%▼
44.5%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |