Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Trocheck 56.2% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 72.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Nelson
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Trocheck
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
1
3
Nelson
Trocheck
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
1
Nelson
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
58.0% (666)
-7.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
64.8% (165)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
43.4% (152)
+0.0%
On even strength, Trocheck has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Trocheck is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Home / Away
Nelson
Trocheck
Home
52.9% (654)
55.3% (436)
Away
48.9% (658)
58.1% (547)
By Period
Nelson
Trocheck
P1
48.4%
56.4%
P2
54.3%
58.7%
P3
50.5%
55.5%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Trocheck
62.0%▲
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |