Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Trocheck 56.2% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Trocheck 68.1%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 78.9%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 63.6%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 76.7%
23.3%
76.7%
Carlsson
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Carlsson
Trocheck
Last 5: Carlsson 3-2 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Trocheck
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Trocheck
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
58.0% (666)
-13.0%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
64.8% (165)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
43.4% (152)
-10.5%
On power play, Trocheck has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Trocheck is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Trocheck
Home
42.5% (435)
55.3% (436)
Away
45.5% (429)
58.1% (547)
By Period
Carlsson
Trocheck
P1
45.3%
56.4%
P2
38.7%
58.7%
P3
48.5%
55.5%
OT
41.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
38.4%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Trocheck
62.0%▲
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |