Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 51.0% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 80.9%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 61.7%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 52.8%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Kuraly
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kuraly
Karlsson
Last 5: Kuraly 3-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kuraly
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
0
Kuraly
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (464)
58.5% (135)
-5.9%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
80.0% (5)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (155)
44.4% (18)
+2.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Kuraly shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Karlsson
Home
55.9% (322)
63.7% (91)
Away
46.0% (298)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Kuraly
Karlsson
P1
55.9%
54.4%
P2
46.7%
66.7%
P3
50.7%
51.9%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | William Karlsson |