Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Johnston 48.0% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 25-7 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 94.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 91.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 90.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
O'Reilly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
7
(32 meetings)
25
7
O'Reilly
Johnston
Last 10: O'Reilly 10-0 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
2
O'Reilly
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
3
O'Reilly
Johnston
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
2
O'Reilly
Johnston
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
47.3% (666)
+8.4%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
50.7% (69)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
51.4% (35)
-1.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnston
Home
55.5% (616)
47.5% (364)
Away
55.3% (617)
48.0% (406)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnston
P1
58.1%
49.4%
P2
54.9%
46.9%
P3
53.9%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
56.3%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 19:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:44 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |