Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Gourde 46.0% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 96.4%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 78.5%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 84.2%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 90.3%
90.3%
9.7%
Dvorak
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Dvorak
Gourde
Last 8: Dvorak 7-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
1
Dvorak
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
0
Dvorak
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
47.2% (687)
+7.0%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
45.0% (20)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
33.0% (88)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Gourde
Home
53.9% (497)
44.4% (356)
Away
53.3% (522)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Dvorak
Gourde
P1
54.6%
42.2%
P2
53.2%
50.0%
P3
54.3%
44.5%
OT
34.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:43 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:05 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:31 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |