Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Ostapchuk on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaunce wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostapchuk 56.0%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 52.4%
Neutral zone
Ostapchuk 56.8%
Result
Zack Ostapchuk favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
Last 6: Gaunce 3-3 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
1
2
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
2
0
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
52.5% (320)
+5.6%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
33.3% (3)
-33.3%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
42.4% (59)
+9.6%
On power play, Ostapchuk has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Gaunce is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Gaunce shoots left. Ostapchuk is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
Home
54.8% (93)
49.1% (171)
Away
59.1% (88)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Gaunce
Ostapchuk
P1
62.3%
50.4%
P2
48.1%
46.8%
P3
59.5%
55.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 18:31 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 09:43 | Offensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 02:42 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |