Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Raty wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 58.7% vs McDavid 47.8% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Raty leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Raty 68.9%
Defensive zone
Raty 94.7%
Neutral zone
Raty 88.3%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Raty
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
Raty
McDavid
Last 10: Raty 9-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Raty
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Raty
9
0
Raty
McDavid
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (905)
47.7% (8,394)
+11.0%
Power Play
71.1% (38)
52.1% (374)
+19.0%
Penalty Kill
62.8% (113)
43.8% (281)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Raty has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Raty is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Raty shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Raty
McDavid
Home
58.9% (569)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
60.4% (487)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Raty
McDavid
P1
59.5%
46.5%
P2
62.8%
48.7%
P3
56.7%
48.3%
OT
53.3%
42.2%
Final 5 min
61.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
62.0%▼
64.5%
59.6%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |