Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Raty wins 59.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 58.4% vs Larkin 52.7% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.9%
Defensive zone
Raty 81.3%
Neutral zone
Raty 69.3%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Raty
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Raty
Larkin
Last 6: Raty 4-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Raty
3
1
Raty
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Raty
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (893)
51.6% (9,056)
+6.7%
Power Play
71.1% (38)
58.6% (2,140)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
62.2% (111)
50.2% (1,124)
+12.0%
On power play, Raty has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Raty is 59.2% vs left-shot opponents (692).
Raty shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
Raty
Larkin
Home
58.9% (569)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
59.6% (473)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Raty
Larkin
P1
58.8%
52.7%
P2
62.7%
53.1%
P3
56.4%
52.0%
OT
53.3%
58.4%
Final 5 min
61.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
56.0%▼
62.5%
59.2%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 19:59 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |