Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +18.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Raty wins 63.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 59.9% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+18.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Raty 63.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 70.0%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 55.1%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Raty
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Raty
Gaudreau
Last 5: Raty 2-3 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Raty
1
0
Raty
Gaudreau
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Raty
Gaudreau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
2
Raty
Gaudreau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
60.5% (517)
44.9% (414)
+15.6%
Power Play
72.7% (22)
31.8% (22)
+40.9%
Penalty Kill
63.4% (101)
38.0% (129)
+25.4%
On power play, Raty has a +40.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Raty is 63.4% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Raty shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
Raty
Gaudreau
Home
60.2% (354)
42.6% (277)
Away
62.9% (286)
43.1% (288)
By Period
Raty
Gaudreau
P1
56.9%
44.1%
P2
67.1%
44.7%
P3
59.5%
39.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
61.0%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
62.0%▼
64.5%
61.4%
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |