Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Turcotte 53.3% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 71.8%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 53.0%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 62.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Fantilli
Turcotte
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fantilli
Turcotte
Last 5: Fantilli 1-4 Turcotte
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
2
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Turcotte
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
53.6% (461)
-4.2%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
70.0% (10)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
100.0% (1)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Turcotte shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Turcotte
Home
50.7% (503)
53.2% (263)
Away
48.5% (501)
55.0% (209)
By Period
Fantilli
Turcotte
P1
47.0%
57.2%
P2
52.5%
59.6%
P3
49.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
50.9%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |