Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Turcotte shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Turcotte 51.3% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 69.4%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 63.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 65.8%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Fantilli
Turcotte
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fantilli
Turcotte
Last 5: Fantilli 1-4 Turcotte
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
2
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Turcotte
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
51.1% (656)
-6.4%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
61.9% (21)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
100.0% (1)
-69.2%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +69.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Turcotte shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Turcotte is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Turcotte
Home
47.3% (1,209)
51.7% (346)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
51.2% (332)
By Period
Fantilli
Turcotte
P1
43.8%
53.8%
P2
46.3%
53.8%
P3
45.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |