Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Mercer 41.9% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 84.0%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 66.1%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 80.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Fantilli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Fantilli
Mercer
Last 6: Fantilli 4-2 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Mercer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
2
Fantilli
Mercer
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
38.8% (263)
+10.6%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
35.3% (17)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
54.5% (11)
-4.5%
On power play, Fantilli has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Fantilli is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Fantilli shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Mercer
Home
50.7% (503)
35.2% (145)
Away
48.5% (501)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Fantilli
Mercer
P1
47.0%
32.7%
P2
52.5%
42.7%
P3
49.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.9%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |