Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Mercer 39.9% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 82.3%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 67.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 69.0%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Fantilli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Fantilli
Mercer
Last 9: Fantilli 6-3 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Mercer
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
2
Fantilli
Mercer
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
39.1% (1,412)
+5.6%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
41.1% (90)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
41.3% (46)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (811).
Fantilli shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Mercer
Home
47.3% (1,209)
40.1% (756)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
38.5% (792)
By Period
Fantilli
Mercer
P1
43.8%
38.2%
P2
46.3%
39.2%
P3
45.9%
41.2%
OT
25.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |