Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Ryan 55.2% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 93.0%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 75.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 88.7%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Fantilli
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Fantilli
Ryan
Last 5: Fantilli 0-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
3
Fantilli
Ryan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
2
Fantilli
Ryan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
56.6% (4,102)
-11.9%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
53.2% (342)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
47.8% (649)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (811).
Fantilli shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Ryan
Home
47.3% (1,209)
56.2% (2,559)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
54.4% (2,534)
By Period
Fantilli
Ryan
P1
43.8%
55.1%
P2
46.3%
54.7%
P3
45.9%
56.0%
OT
25.8%
58.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 03:25 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:31 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:14 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |