Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Tavares 56.8% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 71.9%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 72.7%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 70.9%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Fantilli
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Fantilli
Tavares
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Fantilli
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Fantilli
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Fantilli
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
57.7% (975)
-8.3%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
56.0% (250)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
52.2% (23)
-2.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Tavares
Home
50.7% (503)
57.4% (636)
Away
48.5% (501)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Fantilli
Tavares
P1
47.0%
57.5%
P2
52.5%
56.9%
P3
49.7%
57.5%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:50 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |