Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Paul 53.6% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 81.8%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 55.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 71.0%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Fantilli
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fantilli
Paul
Last 5: Fantilli 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Fantilli
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Fantilli
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
53.7% (354)
-4.3%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
59.0% (61)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
52.9% (34)
-2.9%
On power play, Paul has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Paul
Home
50.7% (503)
55.1% (216)
Away
48.5% (501)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Fantilli
Paul
P1
47.0%
54.9%
P2
52.5%
54.5%
P3
49.7%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.9%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |