Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Paul 52.2% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 69.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 77.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Fantilli
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Fantilli
Paul
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Fantilli
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Fantilli
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
52.6% (3,823)
-7.9%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
56.2% (484)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
46.9% (576)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Paul
Home
47.3% (1,209)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Fantilli
Paul
P1
43.8%
53.8%
P2
46.3%
51.0%
P3
45.9%
52.2%
OT
25.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |