Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Kapanen 47.1% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 66.6%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 60.3%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 52.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Fantilli
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Fantilli
Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Kapanen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Fantilli
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
46.5% (527)
+2.9%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
54.8% (42)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
39.5% (38)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Fantilli is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Fantilli shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Kapanen
Home
50.7% (503)
47.0% (315)
Away
48.5% (501)
46.2% (292)
By Period
Fantilli
Kapanen
P1
47.0%
41.6%
P2
52.5%
50.7%
P3
49.7%
47.6%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |