Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Greig 49.0% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 80.7%
Defensive zone
Greig 71.5%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 58.5%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Fantilli
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Fantilli
Greig
Last 9: Fantilli 4-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
3
Fantilli
Greig
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
48.7% (1,144)
-4.0%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
56.8% (74)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
47.2% (178)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Greig
Home
47.3% (1,209)
49.9% (688)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
48.0% (708)
By Period
Fantilli
Greig
P1
43.8%
46.0%
P2
46.3%
51.8%
P3
45.9%
49.1%
OT
25.8%
28.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |