Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 83.1%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 84.0%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 84.8%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Fantilli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Fantilli
Hertl
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Fantilli
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Fantilli
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
53.9% (8,303)
-9.2%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
59.2% (1,995)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
46.3% (806)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Hertl
Home
47.3% (1,209)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Fantilli
Hertl
P1
43.8%
53.6%
P2
46.3%
54.2%
P3
45.9%
55.3%
OT
25.8%
46.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:31 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |