Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Nosek 48.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 79.4%
Defensive zone
Nosek 71.6%
Neutral zone
Nosek 53.3%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Fantilli
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Fantilli
Nosek
Last 9: Fantilli 2-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
52.0% (102)
-2.6%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
100.0% (2)
-48.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
29.0% (31)
+21.0%
On power play, Nosek has a +48.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Nosek is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nosek
Home
50.7% (503)
52.0% (50)
Away
48.5% (501)
44.7% (85)
By Period
Fantilli
Nosek
P1
47.0%
45.0%
P2
52.5%
42.0%
P3
49.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
43.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |