Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Nosek 53.6% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 92.1%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 68.7%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 79.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Fantilli
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Fantilli
Nosek
Last 9: Fantilli 2-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
54.9% (2,710)
-10.2%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
45.8% (48)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
47.2% (428)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nosek
Home
47.3% (1,209)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Fantilli
Nosek
P1
43.8%
52.2%
P2
46.3%
54.1%
P3
45.9%
54.7%
OT
25.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |