Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudette on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudette wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 48.5% vs Carrick 54.1% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 64.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 88.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 74.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 77.5%
22.5%
77.5%
Gaudette
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Gaudette
Carrick
Last 7: Gaudette 5-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
3
0
Gaudette
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (241)
55.6% (477)
-9.1%
Power Play
59.4% (32)
66.7% (3)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
48.3% (60)
+1.7%
On even strength, Carrick has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Gaudette is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Gaudette shoots right. Carrick is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (147).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Carrick
Home
45.5% (123)
58.1% (270)
Away
50.0% (156)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Gaudette
Carrick
P1
44.9%
56.4%
P2
49.0%
52.5%
P3
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
42.9%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.0%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:10 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:53 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |