Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Gaudette wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaudette 81.1%
Defensive zone
Gaudette 90.1%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 84.3%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Gaudette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Gaudette
Hertl
Last 10: Gaudette 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
7
Gaudette
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Gaudette
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudette
4
3
Gaudette
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (1,485)
53.9% (8,303)
-9.9%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
59.2% (1,995)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
46.3% (806)
+0.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaudette is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,202).
Gaudette shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Hertl
Home
46.0% (913)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
42.6% (770)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Gaudette
Hertl
P1
44.9%
53.6%
P2
46.6%
54.2%
P3
41.4%
55.3%
OT
100.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
46.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:08 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 13:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |