Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Matthews 58.8% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 57.2%
Defensive zone
Henrique 73.4%
Neutral zone
Henrique 57.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Henrique
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Henrique
Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
1
Henrique
Matthews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
59.8% (848)
-4.4%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
64.9% (37)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
56.3% (87)
-5.6%
On power play, Matthews has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Henrique
Matthews
Home
52.4% (227)
60.0% (520)
Away
55.2% (324)
59.3% (452)
By Period
Henrique
Matthews
P1
57.0%
60.2%
P2
52.5%
58.2%
P3
52.4%
60.4%
OT
100.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |