Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Toews 60.4% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 92.9%
Defensive zone
Toews 53.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 82.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Henrique
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Henrique
Toews
Last 6: Henrique 4-2 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Toews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
0
Henrique
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Henrique
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
62.6% (728)
-7.2%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
59.4% (143)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
46.9% (32)
+3.8%
On power play, Toews has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Henrique
Toews
Home
52.4% (227)
61.1% (455)
Away
55.2% (324)
62.1% (448)
By Period
Henrique
Toews
P1
57.0%
59.7%
P2
52.5%
66.7%
P3
52.4%
58.4%
OT
100.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |