Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 54.9%). Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Staal 54.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 67.0%
Defensive zone
Henrique 60.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Henrique
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Henrique
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Henrique
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
56.2% (989)
-0.8%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
66.0% (159)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
42.7% (253)
+8.0%
On power play, Staal has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Henrique
Staal
Home
52.4% (227)
55.4% (699)
Away
55.2% (324)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Henrique
Staal
P1
57.0%
55.7%
P2
52.5%
54.7%
P3
52.4%
53.4%
OT
100.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:20 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |