Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Ellis 46.8% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ellis 66.5%
Defensive zone
Ellis 66.2%
Neutral zone
Ellis 66.6%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Henrique
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Henrique
Ellis
Last 6: Henrique 1-5 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Ellis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
1
Henrique
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
3
Henrique
Ellis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (9,546)
47.3% (607)
+3.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,763)
28.6% (7)
+25.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,832)
42.1% (95)
+4.1%
On power play, Henrique has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,525).
Henrique shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Henrique
Ellis
Home
52.5% (6,430)
48.5% (303)
Away
48.8% (6,734)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Henrique
Ellis
P1
50.6%
50.0%
P2
51.4%
46.2%
P3
50.3%
41.3%
OT
40.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
50.6%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2014 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 01:29 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |