Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 54.6%). Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Sturm 53.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 54.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Henrique
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Henrique
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
0
Henrique
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
54.6% (271)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
54.4% (90)
-3.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Henrique
Sturm
Home
52.4% (227)
53.0% (168)
Away
55.2% (324)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Henrique
Sturm
P1
57.0%
58.2%
P2
52.5%
53.2%
P3
52.4%
52.3%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:12 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |