Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.8%
Defensive zone
Henrique 70.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Henrique
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Henrique
O'Reilly
Last 6: Henrique 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Henrique
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
55.7% (856)
-0.3%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
57.5% (233)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
50.0% (144)
+0.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Henrique
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (227)
55.5% (616)
Away
55.2% (324)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Henrique
O'Reilly
P1
57.0%
58.1%
P2
52.5%
54.9%
P3
52.4%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 05:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |