Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lowry shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Lowry 51.6% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 16-10 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 91.7%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 50.4%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 81.7%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Fantilli
Lowry
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
16
(26 meetings)
10
16
Fantilli
Lowry
Last 10: Fantilli 6-4 Lowry
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
2
Fantilli
Lowry
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
8
Fantilli
Lowry
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
6
Fantilli
Lowry
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Lowry
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
52.9% (9,162)
-8.2%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
57.2% (456)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
44.8% (2,150)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lowry shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Lowry
Home
47.3% (1,209)
53.5% (5,920)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
49.6% (5,848)
By Period
Fantilli
Lowry
P1
43.8%
51.6%
P2
46.3%
51.7%
P3
45.9%
51.5%
OT
25.8%
46.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 01:12 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:15 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |