Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Barkov 56.7% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 90.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 66.1%
Neutral zone
Barkov 65.0%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Lowry
Barkov
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Lowry
Barkov
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Barkov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Barkov
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
Barkov
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Barkov
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Barkov
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
56.9% (740)
-7.6%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
63.3% (256)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
45.2% (104)
-2.6%
On even strength, Barkov has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barkov shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Barkov is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Home / Away
Lowry
Barkov
Home
50.2% (671)
57.4% (540)
Away
47.8% (709)
57.1% (560)
By Period
Lowry
Barkov
P1
48.4%
57.6%
P2
50.1%
56.6%
P3
47.8%
56.9%
OT
66.7%
72.2%
Final 5 min
43.8%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
49.0%
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:33 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 12:25 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 08:16 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |