Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.9% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Mercer 41.9% (+14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 50.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 88.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 75.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Lowry
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lowry
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
38.8% (263)
+16.9%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
35.3% (17)
+50.4%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
54.5% (11)
-15.5%
On power play, Lowry has a +50.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Lowry is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lowry shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Lowry
Mercer
Home
54.3% (429)
35.2% (145)
Away
53.5% (385)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Lowry
Mercer
P1
53.1%
32.7%
P2
55.2%
42.7%
P3
54.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.1%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 09:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |