Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Roy 47.4% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 85.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 51.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 70.9%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Lowry
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Lowry
Roy
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
3
Lowry
Roy
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
5
Lowry
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
46.4% (3,031)
+6.5%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
53.6% (560)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
46.8% (267)
-2.0%
On even strength, Lowry has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Home / Away
Lowry
Roy
Home
53.5% (5,920)
49.5% (1,982)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
45.1% (1,897)
By Period
Lowry
Roy
P1
51.6%
47.6%
P2
51.7%
46.2%
P3
51.5%
48.5%
OT
46.3%
43.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2015 | 3 | 01:10 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 2 | 17:37 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 15, 2014 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 15, 2014 | 2 | 01:54 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 15, 2014 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 15, 2014 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 1 | 11:06 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 1 | 11:01 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 17, 2014 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |