Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Stepan 46.6% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 34-33 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 69.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 79.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 64.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Lowry
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
33
(67 meetings)
34
33
Lowry
Stepan
Last 10: Lowry 4-6 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
8
16
Lowry
Stepan
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
12
7
Lowry
Stepan
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
14
10
Lowry
Stepan
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
46.5% (10,204)
+6.4%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
48.8% (1,593)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
44.2% (1,368)
+0.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stepan
Home
53.5% (5,920)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Lowry
Stepan
P1
51.6%
47.5%
P2
51.7%
45.6%
P3
51.5%
46.8%
OT
46.3%
40.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 16:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 05:45 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 00:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 00:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 2 | 05:00 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |