Adam Lowry vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Pageau 58.9% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 66.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 61.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 60.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Lowry
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Pageau
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Pageau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
59.3% (715)
-3.6%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
68.3% (41)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
59.7% (221)
-20.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Lowry is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lowry shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pageau
Home
54.3% (429)
58.1% (418)
Away
53.5% (385)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Lowry
Pageau
P1
53.1%
55.3%
P2
55.2%
61.5%
P3
54.4%
61.6%
OT
40.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:55 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:30 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |