Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 32 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 44-39 in 83 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 64.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 79.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Lowry
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
44
(83 meetings)
39
44
Lowry
Pavelski
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
25
Lowry
Pavelski
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
17
9
Lowry
Pavelski
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
15
10
Lowry
Pavelski
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
53.6% (8,791)
-0.7%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
58.2% (2,122)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pavelski
Home
53.5% (5,920)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Lowry
Pavelski
P1
51.6%
53.5%
P2
51.7%
55.2%
P3
51.5%
53.9%
OT
46.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:14 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:13 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:24 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 09:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:37 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |