Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 50.9%). Look for Marleau on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Marleau 50.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marleau 77.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 67.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 51.2%
Result
Patrick Marleau favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Lowry
Marleau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Lowry
Marleau
Last 9: Lowry 3-6 Marleau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marleau
1
3
Lowry
Marleau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Marleau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marleau
1
3
Lowry
Marleau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Marleau
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
50.3% (2,656)
+2.6%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
55.7% (332)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
50.7% (452)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Marleau has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marleau shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Marleau is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,061).
Home / Away
Lowry
Marleau
Home
53.5% (5,920)
53.3% (1,735)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
48.5% (1,715)
By Period
Lowry
Marleau
P1
51.6%
52.2%
P2
51.7%
49.5%
P3
51.5%
50.7%
OT
46.3%
55.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2016 | 3 | 15:55 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 3 | 01:11 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 1 | 15:01 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 1 | 11:16 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 3 | 11:56 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 3 | 08:34 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |