Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Johnson 49.7% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 28-18 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnson 83.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 64.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 65.1%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Lowry
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
28
(46 meetings)
18
28
Lowry
Johnson
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
7
11
Lowry
Johnson
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
6
5
Lowry
Johnson
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
5
12
Lowry
Johnson
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
49.8% (5,396)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
54.6% (885)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
42.3% (707)
+2.5%
On even strength, Lowry has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Lowry
Johnson
Home
53.5% (5,920)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Lowry
Johnson
P1
51.6%
50.1%
P2
51.7%
50.6%
P3
51.5%
48.4%
OT
46.3%
42.5%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:31 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:48 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 17, 2020 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 17, 2020 | 3 | 02:47 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 17, 2020 | 2 | 18:07 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 17, 2020 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |